11/21/2009 05:54:03 PM EST

Mayans Predicted End of the Current IT World in 2012!

posted by Sock Puppet Fred

Cloud computing. Google. 2012. The end.


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If you are not attuned to the information technology world you missed Google's announcement about its long rumored Chrome operating system. Chrome is entirely web based and runs on a tiny hardware footprint of the netbook to be released in late in 2010 or early 2011. Google claims that Chrome OS is intended for netbooks , for now, but by 2012 that horizon will expand. (The end of the Mayan calendar corresponds nicely with Chrome for desktops and droves of Microsofties jumping into Puget Sound.)

Big deal you say. If you are in the market for a home or business computer you're probably  debating Apple , Microsoft or even a Linux based PC for your home system so an obscure press release by the Google geeks isn't of much interest.

Yes, very big deal

First, Chrome has been designed from the code up for low-power machines,  specifically netbooks.

That means no disk based storage is recognized by Chrome because it requires flash memory or , in later releases minimal solid state drives, for super-fast boot-up times. Consequently, Chrome utilizes cloud-based apps exclusively. 

Second,the Chrome OS requires minimum amounts of local storage, or hardware for that matter , that can do much more than switch on or off. True plug and play.

Finally, the promise of the web...the web centric desktop...is here.  

Is this good news? Depends.

The potential implications of Chrome are technologically and economically huge .

So large in fact that home and business desktop / laptop owners  may want to start thinking about the size and timing of their next investment.

Until Chrome, the entire IT industry, software, hardware, support, networking you name it, revolved around the autonomous, personal computer. Microsoft and untold other companies and small businesses built their entire business model around it.

Desktops / laptops provided  total control of the system and the most power a single unit can provide to the user. However, the vast majority of computer users simply browse and use web applications ,manipulate documents and use email or PIMs ( personal information managers) of some type.

Those apps easily translate to the cloud. Cost wise, if cloud-based computing becomes the norm you wont need a computer much bigger than a smart phone or a simple netbook.  Moving to the cloud also means no huge libraries of software, no complicated licensing schemes,  inexpensive hardware with no user serviceable components, and little or no need for local IT support. Microsoft is slowly incorporating cloud capability in its "software plus services" strategy but they still require a  traditional PC and client server architecture.

A fundamental shift to the cloud via Chrome and its progeny will be a transformational event in the computer technology business:

 

 Losers

  • -United States: Computer Technology Jobs. Elimination of hundreds of thousands of local IT support and administration jobs and services.
  • -HP, DELL, Apple...Hardware Manufacturers. True platform neutral O/S: the end of disk based
    Microsoft , Apple and Linux O/S except for specialized application support. Drastic reduction in the PC hardware business in its current form.
  • -O/S , Application Software Businesses. Microsoft, Linux distributors and even Apple  will have there prime revenue sources slashed.
  • -Network Security Appliance Manufacturers
  • -Your Local IT Department.
  • -Computer Forensics

 

Winners

  • -Cisco
  • -India
  • -Cellphone\Smart Phone Manufacturers
  • -Broadband services providers
  • -True remote application hosting and remote storage service providers.
  • -Web Application Developers
  • -Google and web oriented service companies.
  • -SAN Manufacturers: NetApp, EMC, Fujitsu
  • -Outsourcing Companies: EDS, IBM, Perot Systems, CSC.
  • -NSA

 

Of course some applications will not easily translate to the cloud computing model, probably complex games, CAD,  some database apps, classified data handling.

How Google handles those applications will determine if Chrome and the game changing implications of the cloud catch on or becomes another "neat" application or fad.

Regardless big, performance packed desktops and laptops ( dinosaurs) are running the old model. No one should be surprised if the Google Chrome OS ( comet) becomes the new model or spins off in an entirely new "cloud" based direction after 2012.


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Mayans Predicted End of the Current IT World in 2012! | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 hidden)
That sounds scary and (none / 0)
exciting. So, do you advocate against buying a new (expensive, state-of-the-art) traditional laptop in the next year or the year after that?

by eborujion on 11/21/2009 06:48:44 PM EST

Well (none / 0)

a little poetic license.

Wild guess, I think it will take about 5 years , assuming the concept takes off, to really impact the PC market...think iPhone and how its impacted the cellphone\smartphone market.

Of course the traditional boxes will still be around so if you only do the basics ( email, web, word processing , light gaming )I wouldn't spend a huge amount for a laptop in any case. You pay a big big premium for "state of the art".

by Sock Puppet Fred on 11/21/2009 08:47:38 PM EST

[ Parent ]
The mayans also predicted... (none / 0)
that removing the hearts of thousands of people and offering them still beating as a sacrifice to the gods, made the sun rise each day.....

I do want to see how chrome will impact our world though but im sure it too shall be replaced with something in time.... till were at a point where we walk around with a interface device and a screen only, no hd/ram/motherboard required.

by Ectheleon on 11/21/2009 07:29:07 PM EST

Thats true (none / 0)
Gates did that for years

by Sock Puppet Fred on 11/21/2009 08:57:47 PM EST

[ Parent ]
you can get a betta of Chrome OS now (none / 0)
I will definately look for it on my next little netbook

Microsoft is working on the  everything on the net model  too.. thats why Windows 7 does not come bundled with an email cliient.

I like my apple snow leopard Os at the moment..Elegent powerful  dependable

A conservative believes nothing should be done for the first time

by C D on 11/21/2009 08:26:58 PM EST

Yeah the beta is out (none / 0)

but I don't have platform for it. I was thinking about trying to load it in a VM(?) but I'll wait for the VMware wienies to figure it out.

I not that ambitious anymore, rather go fishing with my grandson.

by Sock Puppet Fred on 11/21/2009 08:53:33 PM EST

[ Parent ]
how to (none / 0)
There is a great step by step how to on PC World if you get the urge to check it out.

http://www.pcworld.com/arti cle/182749/get_chrome_os_no w.html

A conservative believes nothing should be done for the first time

by C D on 11/21/2009 09:40:18 PM EST

[ Parent ]
P2P downloaders and gamers will save us. (none / 0)
They require lots of storage.  Gamers are constantly pushing the limits of desktop technology.  And while only a few people are starting to understand the consequences of allowing third parties to control their data, no serious enterprise administrator is going to allow his roadwarriors to store stuff in the cloud.

Yes, the cloud will be used by a huge number of people who don't really care and who aren't paying attention.  And it will be used for the applications for which it really does make sense (e.g., shopping).  But the Chrome OS gives people nothing more than slightly glorified web pages, and "the cloud" is nothing more than a glorified web.

But when the first storage disaster affecting hundreds of millions occurs (whether it's a theft or an outright loss), Chrome OS and "the cloud" will find that their limitations are exposed, observed, and considered.  Besides, HTTP can't last forever, and the possibilities after that, given more and more powerful technologies fitting into "wrist-top" and smaller packages (<sigh!>  I was so happy when I quit wearing a watch!), the demand for local storage and processing power will not abate.

I give it a few years at most.  I'm more worried that this is going to cost Google tons of money when it fails.


The world is a strange place, but that makes it really fun to watch. -- bfaul

by EveningStarNM on 11/22/2009 11:34:45 AM EST

I'm almost there already (none / 0)

I work for a company that has taken all of this directly to heart.  Right now, at least 80% of my daily work is done through cloud computing,  and the goal is to pass 95% in the next couple of years.  I'm not doing anything particularly out of the ordinary either.  The vast majority of what I do every day would be familiar to anybody who has ever worked in a sales office, or really any office job for that matter.  We conduct the bulk of our business through google partners, and what can't be done with that is easily and cheaply covered by a third party cloud computing company.  My entire setup, hardware and yearly licenses included, costs less than 1 or 2 months of pay for your average american IT employee.   

We have a physical office, but it really serves no purpose other than having a place to have meetings a few times year and to impress clients.  In the next year, I will essentially be able to do everything my job requires with nothing more than a notebook computer, i-phone (or any smart phone for that matter), and a memory stick, anywhere in the world that has decent internet access.

I don't think many people have thought through the implications of what these two things, extreme affordability and mobility, mean when combined.  The potential for small business' and small scale entrepreneurs will be almost unheard of.  It may even dwarf the internet boom of the late 90's (It will certainly be more sustainable).  If this goes the way that Fred is talking about, it could be the anti-tech bubble, where small scale local business' reap the lion's share of the benefits of the new technology, not venture capitalists and financiers.  This will probably also have huge implications on charity and foreign aid, making things like micro loans and fair trade partnerships much more applicable to the technology sector.  This is some pretty heady stuff.

by funkyspoon on 11/23/2009 09:03:16 PM EST

Are you concerned about your privacy? (none / 0)
You don't control a lot of your data.  Other people do who might not necessarily have your best interests at heart.  In addition, you don't really control access to your data, since you don't own -- or even possess -- most of the storage media.

Are you concerned about any of this?


The world is a strange place, but that makes it really fun to watch. -- bfaul

by EveningStarNM on 11/24/2009 01:35:53 PM EST

[ Parent ]
In our line of work, no, (none / 0)

not particularly.  I see what you're saying, and this could be a problem for some companies, but then again, PC networks are swiss cheese as far as a data miner is concerned.  If someone really wants to get your data, theres plenty of ways to do it, even if you only run an intranet with no outside access.  Employees can always be bribed, which probably also happens in many online data crimes.  


by funkyspoon on 11/24/2009 03:44:06 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Follow-up (none / 0)
Google Chrome alpha gets trounced in netbook benchmark tests:

http://www.geek.com/article s/news/google-chrome-alpha- gets-trounced-in-netbook-be nchmark-tests-20091124/


The world is a strange place, but that makes it really fun to watch. -- bfaul

by EveningStarNM on 11/24/2009 01:30:40 PM EST

I had to take my netbook back to Frys (none / 0)
I wanted to use it to stream hulu  and fancast  tv shows  and it couldnt do it. It was to wimpy.

Im waiting for one to come out with more.. um...everything

if you know of a good brand... spread the word

A conservative believes nothing should be done for the first time

by C D on 11/24/2009 03:45:02 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Give it a couple of years. (none / 0)
You'll have a smart-phone-sized computer with 100 GB of local storage, WiFi, and a dual-core 4mb cache processor with 2GB main memory running Linux or some other open-source OS.

But I'm surprised about the netbook.  Most of them (there are some fantastic deals at the Dell Outlet on their refubished/returns/scratch- and-dent machines) should be able to stream adequately given a good enough network connection.  While wireless-N is a faster protocol that will allow better wireless streaming over LANs, wireless-G isn't too bad.  But if you're depending on cellular wireless services like Verizon, forget it.  At most, that's only going to be 128 kbps, not nearly fast enough for most YouTube clips.  You'll have to wait for them to download before you can watch them without getting pissed.


The world is a strange place, but that makes it really fun to watch. -- bfaul

by EveningStarNM on 11/24/2009 07:32:22 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Mayans Predicted End of the Current IT World in 2012! | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 hidden)
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