It's Official

The elections are over. The Big 3 races were split going 2-1 for the Republicans. The big talk is that the Republicans are gonna count this as a huge victory but I see it a little different.

Bob McDonnell has defeated Creigh Deeds for the vacant gubernatorial spot of Virginia and Chris Christie has defeated incumbant governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey. I know the conservative pundits are going to claim a great victory today but I see today as something both sides can and should take from. I'm going to explain this further.

In McDonnell vs. Deeds, I feel that the superior candidate won. I do not feel that this is a referendum on anybody, considering that both Obama and outgoing democratic governor Tim Kaine still have very high favorability among Virginians. Deeds was a very weak candidate and McDonnell (and ku dos to him) ran a very honorable and poiniant campaign. 

In Christie vs. Corzine, this was almost definitely a referendum on the incumbant Corzine. When Corzine was elected governor 4 years ago, he asked people to hold him accountable. Today they did. Corzine has been a disaster, quite frankly. His state has the highest taxes in the country and the unemployment is outrageous. I don't think that Christie was elected because the people of New Jersey thought he was a fantastic option. The fact that the election was even close was mind boggling to me. Either way, I don't know too much about him but I hope he does well for those poor people in New Jersey.

The 23rd District in New york was the big lesson on both sides. I believe that if the republicans would have just stuck with Dede Scozzafava, a moderate, they would have held onto the district. Prominent national republicans, however, chose to endorse the Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman. Because of the of the pressure placed upon her by these national republicans, Ms. Scozzafava had basically no shot to win so she dropped out. Also, she found that she had profound differences with what Mr. Hoffman, so much so that she chose to throw her full support behind the Democratic candidate Bill Owens, who gave the democrats their first victory in the district since the Civil War.

I believe lessons from can be learned from both sides. First off, the republicans can take from this that people still think they are relevant. They can also see a blueprint for more success from the McDonnell campaign and that it isn't turning into Rush Limbaugh's ideal politician. The democrat beat the conservative in a conservative bastian. For this reason the democrats, and the Obama administration, can learn a couple lessons. First of all, the ideals that swept the nation last year have not necessarily changed. The problem was the lack of fresh thinking and change. Nothing has happend so far and people are not happy. That does not mean that the country is any less to the left then they were when they destroyed the republicans last year. They are just tired of politics as usual and they want change. Deeds was not an agent of change and Corzine didn't deliver on change. If Obama doesn't start delivering the change he promised, he'll be next.
< NY-23 | Obama: The Central Question of Our Time (AOL Poll) >
 Display:
The big lesson here is that the Democrats better put out or get out of the way. People on the left and in the middle are pissed that nothing is getting done. Its Obama's economy now, and he better fix it fast or he and the Dems are toast in 2010...

The Corzine loss in New Jersey is a devastating loss for the Dems, no matter how you try to spin it. I mean, really, New Jersey went to Obama with what percentage? It was a ridiculously high number...

Virginia was to be expected - if the Dems had run a black candidate, things might have been different, but really, Virginia is still in the south and still dominated by rednecks...

NY 23 is an interesting situation, but what I take out of it is that the RINO's just got their wake up call from the base of the party - More people voted against the Democrat here than for him. I think Owens is more conservative than Scuzzy Fava anyway, so more power to him...

I'll be interested to hear Cenk's take tomorrow...

Thanks for the post.

by bobo1 on 11/04/2009 01:25:43 AM EST

Palins nutball  got his ass kicked in what should have been a sure thing  according to boss limbaugh.

I learned one thing

Teabagger candidates are good for the Democrats

GO Palin!

A conservative believes nothing should be done for the first time

by C D on 11/04/2009 01:33:42 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Corzine lost because he SUCKED. NJ is not going to the right; they just wanted a chance, and Christie couldn't possibly be anything but a moderate. As for McDonnell, he had what his opponent lacked--a message.

And the Republicans were bound to win a few back this year and next; the minority party usually recovers to some degree in off-year elections. But the facts remain: the GOP is a mess, and in NY, it shot itself in the foot bigtime. Expect more of the same in 2010 with the quixotic right wing continuing to abandon the moderates that would save the party.

No matter how much you spin in.

by LudwigVan on 11/04/2009 05:05:09 PM EST

[ Parent ]
By "chance" I mean "change". Hard to proofread on this tiny-ass laptop.

by LudwigVan on 11/04/2009 05:06:32 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Republicans win locally, probably much due to the economic crisis. Democrats win nationally, due to Republican self-destruction. I don't see an indicator for 2010, unless the economy basically stays the same. That would be good for Republicans, safe for more self-destruction. But we knew that before these elections.

by OldGerman on 11/04/2009 03:45:12 AM EST

...but no one on either side will either read that level of detail into last night nor learn any lessons. The Democrats will come away believing that the Deeds and Corzine losses were not indicative of the general state of the party (which is probably true), the media will come away believing that this night represents a rebuke of "Obama's Liberal agenda" (which is, as typical, both lazy and uninformed on at least two levels), and the Conservative pundits are already spinning the NY-23 loss as a "good thing," because it shows every non-Tea Party Republican what can happen to their seat if they don't toe the line (which is, as typical, a pathological way to view an electoral loss.)

Democrats would continue to be weak, disappointing, and scared of re-election even if Corzine had won, so it won't change things.  The "Conservative Party" would have been emboldened to run challengers to all Republicans they didn't like regardless of the outcome of this one race, because that is what a party with OCD does.  And regardless of what happened, the media was certain to continue to misread the exit polls and come to conclusions that have no basis in what the country is actually thinking.

Analysis is left to the academicians and listened to by no one in charge. 

by Milltycoon on 11/04/2009 10:56:06 AM EST

As a Californian, I have a hard time caring what happens in states like Virginia and "Joizy".

We all know East Coast politics are so utterly corrupt that a vote means nothing. Those elections were bought and paid for like porkbelly futures; the opinions of those citizens casting their votes were and are totally irrelevant.

by RedPossum on 11/04/2009 12:21:00 PM EST

I get so sick of the major news reporting this as the Democrats being in trouble. It's not even close. The Republicans won two races not because of anti-Obama sentiment, but because of anti-incumbent sentiment in NJ and, as you said, McDonnell being a stronger candidate in VA.

Also, Bloomberg was almost defeated by the Democratic challenger--no one expected that race to be close. If Obama and the DNC had given the same support for Bill Thompson as they did for Corzine, Thompson might've won. (I'd say that was another case of anti-incumbent tendencies, but the Dems are doing just fine.)

by LudwigVan on 11/04/2009 05:18:36 PM EST

 Display: