06/24/2009 10:33:32 PM EST

It may be time to retreat

posted by willie108

Seems to me that if the protestors and young people in Iran continue to fight and protest they will only be slaughtered, killed, arrested, and forced into dark and hidden prison cells.

 

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I think that Mousavi should declare that it is time to stop. The whole world already has seen both the brutality and illegitimacy of the Iranian dictators. No one on the outside will lend them the least credibility. 

Time will tell what will happen and how the world and the Iranian people will deal with this situation.

If Mousavi retreats now he may be able to get the release of the probable thousands that have been arrested.

At this point, in the face of overwhelmingly superior brutal force I feel it is best to stop.

Comments?
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It may be time to retreat | 11 comments (11 topical, 0 hidden)
yea... (none / 0)
yea i guess if everyone retreated when a dictator resorted to brutality the world would be in a sad sad place right now. what SHOULD happen is more people join their cause. there's only so much brutality they can dish out before the oppressed fight back and peaceful protest becomes a civil war.

by kingbane on 06/25/2009 12:16:11 AM EST

I agree (none / 0)
It now looks like democracy in Iran will not come without a lot of casualties and bloodshed. If the Iranian people decide it's worth paying this horrendous price, and keep protesting, and keep getting beaten to death by government militia, maybe police and military forces, or parts of the cleric institutions, will decide that they've had enough of this treatment of their fellow Iranians. Going this way takes tremendous courage, and it's not a decision that Mir-Hossein Mousavi has to make. It might or might not work, but it seems to be the only way forward now. It did work for Gandhi and the Indians, but only after years of great sacrifice.

by OldGerman on 06/25/2009 06:18:28 AM EST

[ Parent ]
regroup and resume (none / 0)

It seems that the protesters may need to stop for now and regroup. It seems impossible that after what has happened that the movement can die. But they need to let things calm down so that marshal law is relaxed and phone and internet service is restored. Then plan for how to resume and win. There is no way that they won't win in the end with all that has happened. But it does not seem they can overcome the brute force of the crack down right now. More important leaders will be captured, imprisoned, and killed it seems right now.

Comments?

by willie108 on 06/25/2009 06:58:17 AM EST

[ Parent ]
No Way (none / 0)
They need the momentum behind them.  They stop even a couple of days, they lose the momentum they need.  They need the momentum of the fraudulent election still burning in people's memories.  They need people to see all the people who were killed and protest their deaths before all those people are forgotten.  Even a couple days time-out would lose this thing for the Iranian people.

by birdboy1 on 06/25/2009 11:08:32 AM EST

[ Parent ]
sorry but. (none / 0)
sorry to say this willie. but you live in a fantasy world. the second they stop protests the cause will be close to dead and will take many years to rebuild. why? because the second the protests stop the government can simply imprison the leaders in secret, but far worse then that the dictators will NOW KNOW that all they have to do to quell any riot is use extreme brutality. lastly the kind of re-organization you're talking about would require them to act and behave much like a military force being commanded by someone. they are not that, they are right now at the core simply a huge mob with a common greivance. you stop the protesting the power of numbers dissapates and their impact whittles away. should read up on some history of many nations, no huge protest that backed down to brutality ever succeeded. nearly all massive protests that met brutality had to fight back to win their cause.

by kingbane on 06/25/2009 12:15:01 PM EST

[ Parent ]
The Iranian counter-revolution (none / 0)

Yeah, if suppressed people had always given up like that after a week fighting, we had one country all over the world today and one great fascistic overlord, called e.g. Xerxes CXXXIV. But seriously, revolutions require more time, even with today communication technologies. What is way faster or shorter today is the media's and the world's attention span. Only two weeks and the Iranian uprise is old news.

They should (and some will) fight on by striking, exercising civil disobedience and clogging the prisons. For them it is more than a media blaze, it is their future and well-being as a people that is at stake.

But btw: they never had any real choice in their election anyway. I think it is their anger towards the whole skewed system that has discharged during the last weeks. Sadly enough the system has done a good job by porking and empowering the uneducated and unemployed to be their henchmen. With the money they made by selling oil to us, mind you!

The West should immediately boycott all Iranian trade, including and primarily oil (that will be hard for us, too). Any other action or (non-action) is hypocrisy. Everyone in the world should show their solidarity with the Iranian people by reducing their gas consumption to the  absolutely necessary amount to alleviate the shortage.

by eborujion on 06/25/2009 08:29:16 AM EST

A boycott will do no good (none / 0)

When has a boycott or ever helped in these situations? Remember the boycott and oil for food with Sadam, cutting off Cuba, the isolation of North Korea?

Sure the trade funds the dictators, but it also keeps the population healthy and informed so they can rise up on their own when the time is right.

The iranians may need to do a minor fall back to re-group and plan, but I think they can't retreat. I think now is their time, but they are going to have to do it on their own - they have to own it for it to really be successful.

About all the west can do is provide moral support and help keep the information technology alive and well for them. 

by rolodex on 06/25/2009 11:41:05 AM EST

[ Parent ]
I see what you mean, (none / 0)
that boycotts don't really work because they are usually not strongly enforced because of course there is money to be made. I think Cuba and NK were much easier to boycott (and the effects less pronounced), because they were poor countries anyway and they had not much to sell (the cigars and the rum still made it to the rest of the world), to put it "slightly" over-simplified. Their people suffered of course because they would have needed to buy food and drugs and stuff.

And the boycott in Iraq has worked very well IMO.

Iran OTOH is a filthy rich country that really would hurt if we stopped buying their oil. And more important: it would hurt mostly the wealthy usurpers (relatively speaking). AFAIK Iran is not importing much goods which means they could probably sustain themselves foodwise. Another thing the West could do is freeze their foreign bank accounts, like the British already did.
And, of course, like you said keep them somehow online and provide them with IT stuff.

by eborujion on 06/25/2009 11:04:14 PM EST

[ Parent ]
The biggest damage from boycotts (none / 0)

could actually be the lack of free information flow and human interaction with the outside world. It's the free flow of ideas that help people fight againt oppression, not money (it helps, but not absolutely needed). Maybe it's  kind of a corrolary to the "sunshine is the best disinfectant" saying about politics.

If you have followed Jason Jones reports from Iran for the Daily show, he sort of highlights how plugged in to the west they are. That is why I am pretty encouraged about Iran, they are still informed and connected. The last thing we want is for them to get cut off like North Korea is. I don't think those poor NK folks have any idea how screwed they are.

by rolodex on 06/25/2009 11:27:15 PM EST

[ Parent ]
In touch (none / 0)
Yeah, you're totally right about the need to keep oppressed people somehow connected with the rest of the world. I watched some of the segments on the Daily show, they were truly amazing, they interviewed the right guys (well, real reformers, who are now in prison -as opposed to e.g. Mussawi...), got into private homes and talked to the people in the street. You would have never imagined that in this country would be such an obvious election fraud and violent street bashings by the police etc. That coverage (and the fact that they stayed in touch with the rest of the world via youtube and twitter) also gave me hope that the Iranians will be willing to get rid of that ugly system.

by eborujion on 06/25/2009 11:53:58 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Consider Tiananmen Square (none / 0)
Twenty years later, where is their democratic revolution?

It's all in the momentum.

"No, you are a paid blogger assigned to counter anyone that posts something negative about the government or Obama." by Mcamelyne II on 05/17/2011

by Robrob on 06/25/2009 10:29:27 PM EST

It may be time to retreat | 11 comments (11 topical, 0 hidden)
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