02/10/2010 12:26:33 AM EST
Cenk's Optimism Trap
posted by MGriebe
Some, including Cenk in today's broadcast, argue that health care reform will inevitably happen in a year or two as higher premiums lead to more popular outrage about health care costs. But, there are at least two new and growing factors that can dismantle the link between popular outrage and policy change: unlimited corporate political funding and the dissolution of a common public narrative.
The argument for long-run optimism is straight-forward. Even if a progressive health care bill does not get passed now, the system is broken. Costs will grow much faster than inflation, as will popular outrage. It will become political suicide not to do something about it. But, two things have changed from the supposed halcyon days (sometime in the past, I suppose) when public outrage lead to policy change.
First, as we all know, starting with the next batch of elections, corporations will be able to spend unlimited funds on campaigns. Any industry on the congressional chopping block will probably campaign as if their very profits depended on it -especially if firms within that industry make what economists call Economic Profit (profit above what one would expect, given the amount of invested capital). If firms to their political influence to heart, I would expect anti-trust enforcement to collapse.
Second, not just in sequence but also in magnitude, with 500 channels on TV, thousands of voices and millions of opinions in the blogosphere, American's share less and less of a common narrative. My "media experience," which is my cultural connection to the wider America is very different from my wife's and vastly different from my father's or brother's. When I discuss stuff with my brother, it is as if we live in two separate countries. We do not agree on any facts. (I tend to think its because his media experience does not include facts, but I suspect he thinks the same of me.)
Reason is built on experience and our experience is divided. We cannot reason with one another. If corporate money really starts to flow, the tables will be tilted firmly against the average American. I am not sure we will be able to translate public outrage into policy action when we are divided and the industries are united.