Krugman: Lack Of Cost Control Is A Myth

Just a quick post here.

Nobel Prize winner and liberal economist Paul Krugman has written a must-read op-ed over at the New York Times.

Really need to read the entire thing (it's not that long), but here's a snippet on cost control:


The second myth is that the proposed reform does nothing to control costs. To support this claim, critics point to reports by the Medicare actuary, who predicts that total national health spending would be slightly higher in 2019 with reform than without it.

Even if this prediction were correct, it points to a pretty good bargain. The actuary's assessment of the Senate bill, for example, finds that it would raise total health care spending by less than 1 percent, while extending coverage to 34 million Americans who would otherwise be uninsured. That's a large expansion in coverage at an essentially trivial cost.

And it gets better as we go further into the future: the Congressional Budget Office has just concluded, in a new report, that the arithmetic of reform will look better in its second decade than it did in its first.

Furthermore, there's good reason to believe that all such estimates are too pessimistic. There are many cost-saving efforts in the proposed reform, but nobody knows how well any one of these efforts will work. And as a result, official estimates don't give the plan much credit for any of them. What the actuary and the budget office do is a bit like looking at an oil company's prospecting efforts, concluding that any individual test hole it drills will probably come up dry, and predicting as a consequence that the company won't find any oil at all -- when the odds are, in fact, that some of the test holes will pan out, and produce big payoffs. Realistically, health reform is likely to do much better at controlling costs than any of the official projections suggest.

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It seems from my experience here that cost control (and the Public Option) is the single biggest issue at TYT.  Krugman kinda knocked that argument out of the park.

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Knocked it out of the park? His replies are very vague. Oh and "second decade", fuck that Krugman.

by Alloy on 03/12/2010 03:34:25 PM EST

I haven't read the full column yet, but these paragraphs pasted here are completely unconvincing to me.  His claims that there are cost controls are barely backed up at all in these paragraphs.  I remain unconvinced.

David

by yturks on 03/12/2010 04:05:07 PM EST

Mr. Krugman states, "Realistically, health reform is likely to do much better at controlling costs than any of the official projections suggest," but, except for an analogy of dubious merit, he points to no facts and makes no arguments that support that assertion. In fact, the only facts he points to contradict that assertion.

by Corpusless on 03/12/2010 04:15:30 PM EST

I think this is a shell game. The government may save some money but the rest of us will continue to pay through the nose, as well as make up the difference. The CBO sucks at math. They very rarely look at the big picutre. In this case it would be the additional costs shifted to people paying for private coverage from the Medicaid increase, either in higher state taxes or private insurance costs. Probably both.

By the second decade, Medicare will be bankrupt. This whole approach was an exercise in futility.  If private healthcare can't cover the healthiest portion of our demographics now, why do we keep heading down this road?

by sisco66 on 03/12/2010 06:32:47 PM EST

Knocked it out of the park?  Are you serious?  LOL!

Fuck you, Krugman.

We not only need to keep rates from going higher---we need to CUT them---get it?  Jesus-fucked-up-KeyRhist!

Will only go up 1%?  When?  When the plan starts up after 2-4 years---maybe?  When our premiums have gone up 100% between now and that fuckin' fuzzy future point in time?  LOL!

I was actually excited about reading this article!  I thought---wow, maybe I'm wrong!  Maybe there's hope!  What a letdown.  TERRIBLE!  We’re doomed if people can be so easily duped.  F-F-F-F-FUCK!

I hope Krugman snacks on some pubes that have crabs and they infest his beard.

by kurd55 on 03/12/2010 10:18:08 PM EST

What have projections go to do with health insurance companies raising their rates?  These companies are driven by profits, they have no interest in lowering costs.

Don't waste your vote, vote Green or Independent in the next election.

by mcamelyne on 03/13/2010 12:20:52 AM EST

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