03/08/2010 12:03:16 AM EST

Promised to double exports

posted by mcamelyne

Will anyone ever forget the ballsy promise by Pres Obama to double exports in 5 years in the state of the union.  For me it was a draw dropping moment.  Here was a promise given the current economic climate and all the trade deals that we have agreed to that has a snow balls chance in hell of ever happening.  What, are we going to do, double Boeing's exports, Microsoft's exports or how about defense exports, because it won't be GM, Chrysler or Ford.  Are we going to double our corn harvest, the wheat harvest, how about oil?

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The US manufacturing employment has been stagnant at about 15 million and now is dropping like a rock: "Durable Goods Employment remained fairly steady at 10 million to 11.5 million employees between the mid-1960s to the early 2000s. Then total employment dropped like a stone, losing three million people over the last 10 years. These are levels last seen in 1950."

http://www.ourfuture.org/bl og-entry/2010020825/no-virg inia-us-manufacturing-isnt- dead

"Non-durable goods manufacturing is even worse. From the mid-1960s to the early 2000s, total employment in this area hovered around a 6.8 million. However, starting in 2000, the number fell off a cliff, losing almost 2 million people. This is the lowest the number has been in over 60 years."

For Bill Clinton it was said, "It's the economy stupid."  Someone needs to whisper in Pres Obama's ear, "It's jobs stupid."

The only way we can recover these jobs is to subsidize factories to build things we now import.  Need a list, look at our imports from China.  That would be a great place to start.  Let's make steel again.  Let's get back to producing things and rebuild our rust belt.

Let these industries pay back the subsidies once they are on their feet and then protect our markets.  If we don't have any factories, we won't have any exports.  I know 15 million unemployed people that will support this and vote for whichever party enacts it.

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Poll

Should we have a US industrial policy?
Yes, the US is getting clobbered. 85%
Maybe, but we need to support free trade 14%
No, the government will just screw it up too. 0%

Votes: 7
Results | Other Polls
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Promised to double exports | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 hidden)
The only (none / 0)
Thing this country is going to export more of are derivatives and toxic assets. Weapons could make us a shit load of money but we usually hoard those like red necks hoard guns in their bomb shelters, or give them to Israel or something. Nope this place is going to eat its self and companies are going to take cheap 3rd world labor under the worst conditions and sell the shit back to us, then dump the waste hopefully somewhere no one notices. All while their companies are based in the Virgin Islands or something so they don’t pay taxes.

by Alloy on 03/08/2010 03:15:57 AM EST

Sorry, it nwon't work like that. (none / 0)
Industrial production is not the way to go, because the States hve no way to be competitive in this area. The $ is overvalued and the prices are too high in the US.
Tariffs would only create a vicious circle.
They would artificially increase the prices for many goods, which would make products in the Us even more expensive, which would make the prices and necessarily the wages higher, which would make the US less competitive.
Obviously America needs jobs, but it will not be able to create them by producing steel or products that could be cheaper produced in China.

The solution will have to be extrem. America has to support its elite and take care that they have the best conditiones to work in America. Then America has to tax them and use these taxes to support the people who can't get jobs. America will never again have a situation in which the real unemployment rate will be 5%. Some people will have to learn a lot and use that money to support the less fortunate.

As I stated in several blogs before an unconditional basic income will become a necessity, that will have to be paid by the taxes of the people who earn a lot. The percentage of money they will have to pay in taxes is not the only thing that makes rich people want to live in America. The living conditions, the freedom in which they can create their businesses, the opportunities for research and general freedom are much more important.

With wealth comes responibility. With great wealth comes great responsibility!

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/08/2010 03:57:06 AM EST

Higher taxes doesn't mean greater collections... (none / 0)
The rich always find a way to avoid tax and congress always gives them loopholes.  So what if our steel isn't competitive for export or our TV's.  The point is that people need real jobs, not flipping burger jobs.  If that means we have to pay a higher price on white goods, there it is.  Either we pay higher prices on some goods or we pay higher taxes.  Personally most people would rather have the better job and then decide what to spend their money on.

Don't waste your vote, vote Green or Independent in the next election.

by mcamelyne on 03/08/2010 07:56:02 AM EST

There is only one problem (none / 0)
Politcians don't have the guts.
People here often talk about the necessary revolution, if that would really happen the solution would be quite simple.

Lower the taxes and make the system easier.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/08/2010 11:47:27 AM EST

[ Parent ]
deficits are deadly (none / 0)
We have a 1.5 trillion dollar deficit.  We are on our way to becoming Greece.  Cutting taxes is not the answer, cutting spending on ill advised wars is a better start.  We have to raise revenue.  One of the easiest ways to raise revenue is to raise tariffs.  You want that T-shirt made in China, fine pay a 20% tax.  Or, buy the same T-shirt made in the US with no tariff.  Tariffs are the one legitimate means of raising revenue enshrined in the constitution.  We need jobs, jobs, jobs and more jobs.  25% or more of workers in the private sector are unemployed.

Don't waste your vote, vote Green or Independent in the next election.

by mcamelyne on 03/08/2010 05:58:47 PM EST

[ Parent ]
how are the unemployed in the privat sector? (none / 0)
I explained it already in anther thread:
America has to accept high unemployment and learn to deal with it.
Tariffs are harmful, because they raise American wages or shrink American economic power.

The deficit could be fought by lowering the taxes to 25% for everybody.

First you have to get rid of cash money. Then you put a tax of 25% on every financial transaction. There would be no way to avoid that tax and it is extremly low. Most countries have vat's that are nearly as high. If that would be done the government would get 25% of the GDP in taxes. This year that would have meant a balanced budget.
This doesn't include yet the money that would be raised through people paying for illegal firearm, drugs, prostitution and workers who have no residency permit.

Lowering the taxes and making it impossible to avoid them would be the solution.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/08/2010 06:12:56 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Say what? (none / 0)

How can you say America must live with high unemployment?  What a canard.  America must learn to save more.  America must learn to live within its means.  There is no reason why America cannot return to full-employment.

As for the unemployed being in the private sector the stimulus plan has employed people mostly on govt projects and kept teachers, fire fighters and policemen on the job.  It helped fill holes int he state budgets so they wouldn't have to lay off.  Most of the unemployment has occurred in private sector jobs.

Don't waste your vote, vote Green or Independent in the next election.

by mcamelyne on 03/08/2010 06:39:06 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Any realistic idea how to get the jobs? (none / 0)
it can not be low or unskilled labour, because America can not compete in this area with low wage countries.

It can't be done with tariffs, because they cause more harm than they do good.

Your solution is to raise prices, by creating tariffs and at the same time learn to save more?

Why not accept that there aren't enough jobs for everybody?

People were able to produce enough and more than that with the workforce and efficiency in the 50s. What happend everything became more efficient and the workforce was nearly doubled by expecting women to work.

On what do you base the assumption that there are possiblities to get more jobs?

If there is something you can't get you have to learn to live without it and deal with it.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/08/2010 06:56:33 PM EST

[ Parent ]
What do I tell my neighbor? (none / 0)
How about...Hey asshole, sorry, it's your bad luck, bad timing go put a 45 in your mouth and pull the trigger?  Get serious.  If there are people willing to work, then the government needs to encourage companies to hire and produce.  Stop acting like it is game over and the US is in terminal decline.

Let's build a couple new cities, how about factories to produce TV's, computers and everything you find in Wal-mart.  Maybe we can build some great high speed railroads.

Forget about being wage competitive.  That's a losing game.  We don't need to.  We can sell our products in the US to Americans, replace all those imports with American made products.  That's what the French and the Germans have done, or don't you read the papers?

Don't waste your vote, vote Green or Independent in the next election.

by mcamelyne on 03/08/2010 10:22:44 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Obviously I don't read the same papers as you (none / 0)
"That's what the French and the Germans have done, or don't you read the papers?"

I have never heard about that.

"We can sell our products in the US to Americans, replace all those imports with American made products."

So you do propose to isolate America from the rest of the world economy? I explained to you several times that this "solution" will make everything in America more expensive. There would be no chance in hell for America to export anything if your plan gets set in motion. You would even lose Hollywood. (I know that's already happening, but slowly)

For your first question:
Tell your neighbor to do something himself. I nobody hires him he has the time to find some way how he can be useful. It is guaranteed that he has enough money to survive, if he needs to do something to feel needed, there are many charities who would love his help.

I'm not saying that America has already lost the game, all I'm saying is that America can't compete when it comes to un- or low skilled jobs. The sooner America accepts that and starts the necessary changes the better.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/09/2010 04:37:29 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Guaranteed money? (none / 0)

" It is guaranteed that he has enough money to survive"  What country are we talking about.  Once the unemployment runs out, there is no money.  You want someone that has earned a living all their life to suddenly be worthless and do charity work and accept handouts?  You must be smoking some really good stuff.

Further I haven;t proposed tariffs on all imports, just from unfair trading partners.  Obviously Europe is exempted because they play by the rules.  You really need to get out of your ivory tower and try to get to know the working class.

 

Don't waste your vote, vote Green or Independent in the next election.

by mcamelyne on 03/09/2010 05:44:51 AM EST

[ Parent ]
I like my tower!;) (none / 0)
I'm proposing changes and your answer is, but it isn't like that yet. Once an unconditional basic income is isntituted the unemployment wouldn't run out, because everybody would have an unconditional basic income.

Doing charity work is far from being worthless and when you know that you get an unconditional basic income and the tax system is as easy as I proposed it would be easier and less risky to start your own company.

I'm not saying that anybody should be forced not to work. I only propose a way in which you can work, even if you don't get any money by doing so. This creates enormous opportunities for entrepeneurs.

You still haven't answered what you are willing to do about the risen costs of living once you have your tariffs.

Computers would become more expensive, nearly all electronic things would become more expensive, clothes would become more expensive, most machinery would become more expensive, tires would become more expensive, basicly nearly everything would become more expensive. How are people supposed to pay for that? Do they get higher wages?

Tariff are usually put on products, not countries. What you are proposing is basicly a boycott on China. This would lead to an open trade war with China. Yeah, sounds good, escalate a war that you are already loosing, instead of changing the strategy. China has the reserves to increase the value of the $ even more, which would make American products even less competitive. Combine that with the higher wages and you come to a situation where America cannot compete in any industry.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/09/2010 09:10:38 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Now who is dreaming? (none / 0)

The US is not ready for full socialism as you propose.  Where else do we import these products from?  How many TV's, computers, shirts, etc, come from Europe.  The only one that stands out are Italian shoes.

Seriously, we are in a trade war with China now.  So what if they dump their bonds or their dollars, then they lose, not the US.

If people have real jobs making a real wage, they can afford to pay more.  Further do we want a consumer/debt driven society or a manufacturing/investment society.  

One thing for sure, the American voter isn't ready for universal healthcare, they aren't going to be ready for minimum salaries regardless of work performed.  Paying people not to work is a deficit buster. My porposal helps close the deficit gap.

Don't waste your vote, vote Green or Independent in the next election.

by mcamelyne on 03/09/2010 04:24:53 PM EST

[ Parent ]
You are! (none / 0)
So basicly you want to make everything more expensive and rise the wages, so America becomes more competitive?

Currently the wages are so high that America can't compete with other countries, because the wages are too high, you want to fight that by raising the wages and you really don't see the fault with that?

America is importing very much from other countries, e.g. Germany. They export about as much as China, even though their wages are very high too. How can they manage such witchcraft? By concentrating on high quality precission products (a lot of them not consumer products) and accepting a certain unemployment. BTW in Germany unemployment benfits never run out.

I know that America isn't ready for my proposal yet, that's why they will lose further ground.

You proposal helps to increase the deficit gap, unless you take care that America is totally independent from the rest of the world.

It's not about whether you want a consumer/debt driven society or a manufacturing/investment society. It has to be about how America can compete. We don't care if American products are too expensive, we will even make them more expensive, so we can increase the internal market is pure BS.

If China dumps their dollar bonds they will definitly loose money, but they can afford that. America on the other hand would see incredible inflation. America would not be able to afford that.
Both would lose, but only the Chinese economy can survive it.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/09/2010 04:45:39 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Compete? (none / 0)

I am not proposing that we export TV's or clothing.  Only we do import avoidance.  Germany is a great exporter because they protect their national industries from takeover.  They offer great benefits to the workers.  If the US did the same we would be even less competitive.

You propose a 25% tax on every financial transaction.  How will that make us more competitive.  IF the US is largely a service economy, we are self generating all our business.  If we put up a protectionist wall and produce most of our consumer goods it only improves the service economy by giving us real production.

The current crisis is so bad, because we cannot jumpstart the economy by building inventory.  No factories, no inventory to build.

Don't waste your vote, vote Green or Independent in the next election.

by mcamelyne on 03/09/2010 04:56:55 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Not if (none / 0)
79,2% of the American DGP is produced in the service sector.

The 25% (if you don't want uconditional income about 15% would be enough) Tax would make America more competitive, because it would mean getting rid of all other taxes. On everage honest people would pay less taxes and the revenue would be higher. There would no longer be a way to get around this tax and even criminals and people without residency permit would have to pay it.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/09/2010 05:16:59 PM EST

[ Parent ]
PS (none / 0)
25% is of course very high, I took that number to finance an unconditional basic income for eveyone. And everyone would be able to live from it.
It's so great when people can't cheat anymore when it comes to taxes.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/08/2010 06:21:37 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Promised to double exports | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 hidden)
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